Standing up to Pakistan or even militarily responding has the potential to shore up the TalibanвЂ™s domestic political standing. Pakistani strikes have also reinvigorated anti-Pakistan sentiment across AfghanistanвЂ™s political spectrum, who see them as a violation of Afghan sovereignty. At the same time, anti-Pakistan sentiment within the Taliban appears to have surged, shoring up support for the TTP within the Taliban. More significantly, even if some pragmatists feel the need to keep hostilities with Pakistan in check, the Taliban at large appears unmoved, as the TTPвЂ™s status in and activities from Afghanistan remain unchanged. Contrary to official Pakistani claims, there are no credible reports of killed TTP leadership. So, they may have hoped that the strikes will bring pressure on the Taliban to reverse policies that create grounds for Pakistan to undermine their domestic political standing - or at the least, the strikes will drive a wedge in TTP-Taliban ties and compel Taliban pragmatists to consider the cost of their support to the TTP.Д«ut Pakistan may have also overplayed its hand: The strikes killed at least 20 children among other civilians. Pakistani military leaders seem to know that their military action on Afghan territory is unpopular with Afghans. And second, Pakistan wanted to give a shock treatment to the Taliban to get them to reconsider their approach to the TTP. First, Pakistan probably used the bombing to send a message to the TTP that its cross-border haven is not as safe as it assumes, in the hope of deterring it from further cross-border action. It likely had at least two coercive goals. PakistanвЂ™s turn to fighter jets was a response to the month-on-month escalation in violence and growing loss of security. In April, the TTP launched a spring offensive named вЂњAl-Badr,вЂќ the most significant insurgent onslaught against Pakistan in recent years. After a start-stop dialogue process spanning several months, the TTP appears politically stronger and emboldened. Instead the Taliban asked Pakistan to address the TTPвЂ™s so-called вЂњgrievancesвЂќ and offered to mediate talks. In the first months after the Taliban takeover, Pakistani officials downplayed the TalibanвЂ™s political approach to the TTP in public and privately asked the Taliban to limit the TTP activities in Afghanistan, demanding a crackdown. The TTP has used its improved political status in Afghanistan to step-up cross-border attacks and is now regularly sending fighters into Pakistan. After taking over the country, the Taliban gave the TTP de-facto political asylum. Since its resurgenceВ a few years ago, the TTP has strengthened its bases in Afghanistan to attack Pakistan - especially in areas where the TalibanвЂ™s territorial influence as an insurgency was significant. PakistanвЂ™s use of cross-border airstrikes is tied to the trajectory of the TTP in Afghanistan and Pakistani leadershipвЂ™s growing frustration with the TalibanвЂ™s failure to restrain the TTP.

This turn of event raises questions about how we got to this point, the TalibanвЂ™s calculus on the TTP, policy options available to Islamabad and what is at stake for the United States. For its part, Pakistan lodged the strongest protest to date on the use of Afghan territory by terrorist groups and indicated that it may engage in cross-border action again. In response, the Taliban summoned IslamabadвЂ™s envoy in Kabul and the groupвЂ™s defense minister, Mullah Yaqub, threatened retaliation in case of more attacks, albeit without naming Pakistan. On April 21, in a major escalation, Pakistan carried out coordinated airstrikes inside Afghanistan at suspected TTP locations but ended up killing civilians. Tensions have mounted, in particular, due to the TTPвЂ™s growing attacks targeting Pakistani security forces in the eight months since the TalibanвЂ™s takeover. Analysts say that the Taliban takeover has sparked a spike in terror attacks that have put Islamabad in a difficult position. The Bumboret Kalash Valley entrance in northern Pakistan, near the border with Afghanistan. This has stunned Islamabad, which was operating on the assumption that the Taliban would be beholden to Pakistan out of gratitude for years of support. It has done so by challenging the status of the Afghan-Pakistan border and providing a haven to the anti-Pakistan insurgent group the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, which has killed thousands of Pakistanis and seeks to establish a Taliban-style, Shariah-compliant state in Pakistan. Since coming into power, the Taliban has defied Pakistan - its main state benefactor during the insurgency against the United States military and the deposed Afghan government. Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban are teetering on the brink of a major crisis.

Taliban insurgency